Organised Chaos

Understanding and Leveraging Crowed & Group Dynamics

Firstly, listen to the audio discussion, then read the text.

Understanding how humans react under pressure doesn’t just make your training and plans better, it makes it real.

This is about preparing you to design plans and train others in a way that sticks when it counts most.

Lesson Objectives

This lesson will introduce you to:

• The principles of organised chaos in crisis management.
• How uncertainty influences decision making.
• The importance of adaptability during dynamic incidents.
• Practical approaches to maintaining organisational control.

Learning Outcomes

By the end of this lesson, you will be able to:

• Explain the principles of organised chaos.
• Describe how uncertainty affects crisis management.
• Recognise the importance of adaptive decision making.
• Identify techniques that help maintain organisational control during rapidly evolving incidents.

Organised Chaos – Why Training Matters

In moments of crisis, whether it’s a terrorist attack, an hybrid attack, or a sudden public threat ,most people freeze.

Some hesitate. But a few will step forward, instinctively leading others to safety.

Training must be designed to create those few.

From the shop floor to the boardroom, everyone plays a role. And in the chaos, it only takes one calm voice, one confident action, to influence the many.

That’s not just theory, it’s how human behaviour works under stress.

You might ask, How can we prepare for something so unpredictable?

The answer lies in psychology.

Decades of research show that in high pressure situations, people look to others for cues. When uncertainty floods the brain, we follow the first signs of clarity, even if we don’t realise we’re doing it.

I’ve lived this.

I’ve also built training environments that simulate these exact pressures, using psychological principles to test, sharpen, and strengthen response instincts.

Those who are mentally prepared don’t just survive, they lead.

Training Programmes are always Questioned

We all ask the same questions before committing to new training:

Why do I need this? What’s in it for me? How does this apply to my role?

Here’s one answer no one can argue with:

When crisis strikes, leadership doesn’t come from job titles, it comes from the first person willing to act. And if you’ve been trained for chaos, your actions can save lives.

Here’s a breakdown of some theories to explain why everybody at an organisation must be involved in Training, and why it works:

1. Social Proof and Conformity

People tend to look to others, especially in uncertain or ambiguous situations to determine how to behave – fact, this is known as social proof. If one or two people act decisively, others follow, assuming that those people know what they’re doing – Trained.

• Example: In emergencies, if one person starts running, others might panic and run too, even without understanding the danger.

2. Authority and Charisma

When a person appears confident, authoritative, or charismatic, they often become a natural leader in a group, even if they don’t have formal authority. This influence is magnified in moments of chaos or uncertainty such as a terrorist attack.

• Charisma can override logic, people feel emotionally drawn and are more likely to follow.

3. Deindividuation in Crowds

In a crowd, people often lose their sense of individual identity and feel anonymous. This deindividuation makes them more susceptible to group behaviour – fact, especially if a strong figure directs that behaviour.

• This is how peaceful protests can turn violent, a few aggressive people spark a chain reaction.  Its all happened on the streets of the UK in recent years.

4. Contagion Theory

Emotions and behaviours can spread through crowds like a virus. If a couple of people display intense emotion (anger, fear, courage), it can quickly influence others around them.

• Positive contagion: one person stays calm during a crisis, speaks clearly, and others follow suit.
• Negative contagion: someone panics or incites violence, and that spreads too.

5. Emergent Norm Theory

In new or chaotic situations, there often aren’t clear norms, so individuals who act decisively can establish new rules that the crowd adopts. People want to fit in, so they align with these emergent norms.

In short, crowds and large groups are surprisingly easy to steer, especially when conditions are uncertain. A few confident individuals can shape the emotional and behavioural tone of the group, for better or worse.

In our case, its to control large groups of people in a positive manner to deliver safety and security during a terrorist or hybrid attack and save lives.

When communicating at all levels of an organisation, the above information can be used to persuade people and create by-in with the incident response plans and the methods used for training.

Examples

Let’s look at two contrasting real world examples, one where a single person escalated a crowd into aggression, and another where one person helped de-escalate a crisis.

Example 1: Aggressive Influence — The Capitol Riot (January 6, 2021)

During the U.S. Capitol insurrection, there were thousands of protesters, but certain individuals and small groups played key roles in escalating the situation:

What happened. A few high-profile figures and vocal individuals in the crowd began pushing past barricades and urging others to storm the Capitol.

Why it worked:

• People were already emotionally charged.
• There was a lack of clear structure or leadership.
• As a few people broke into the building, others followed — not because they all had a plan, but because of social proof and the urge to conform to the dominant behaviour.
• This is a classic case of deindividuation, emergent norms, and emotional contagion leading to chaos.

Example 2: Positive Influence — Tank Man at Tiananmen Square (1989)

Its a famous image of an unknown man standing in front of a line of tanks the morning after the Chinese military suppressed a pro-democracy protest.

What happened:

One unarmed man stepped into the path of tanks, blocking their advance.

He had no weapon or authority, just visible courage.

Psychological impact:

• That one act of defiance became a symbol of peaceful resistance.
• Even soldiers and viewers hesitated, it disrupted the expected flow of aggression and introduced a new emotional tone: contemplation, humanity, and courage.

Here, one person reframed the situation, shifting the emotional energy and creating a different narrative. This is emotional and moral contagion in a positive sense.

These examples show how crowds aren’t mindless, they’re highly responsive to cues, especially from people who act confidently or emotionally. The same mechanism that can cause riots can also spark moments of unity, heroism, or peace.

Lets drill it down to Terrorism & Hybrid Threat Attacks

The above principles have absolutely shown up in terrorist attacks and active assailant situations.

Let’s break down a few real-world examples that illustrate how crowd psychology, leadership, and individual influence can dramatically shape the outcome, for better or worse.

1. The September 11, 2001 Attacks — Flight 93

What happened:

• After learning about the other hijacked planes, passengers on United Flight 93 realised their hijackers intended to crash the plane in a suicide mission.

• A small group of passengers, including Todd Beamer, Tom Burnett, and Jeremy Glick, organised a plan to retake control of the plane.
• Beamer’s famous words, Let’s roll, became a rallying cry.

Psychological dynamics:

• A few decisive, vocal leaders sparked action, the rest of the passengers followed, rather than staying frozen in fear.
• It was a powerful mix of social proof, emergent leadership, and moral clarity in a crisis.
• Despite no formal authority, those passengers’ confidence and willingness to act redirected the group’s response.

Result:

• The plane crashed in a field in Pennsylvania instead of hitting its target (likely the Capitol or White House), saving countless lives.

2. Bataclan Theatre Attack (Paris, 2015)

What happened:

• During a concert, three gunmen stormed the theatre and began shooting indiscriminately.
• Panic ensued. However, a few people took initiative, helping others escape through windows, hiding people inside rooms, or shielding others.

Psychological dynamics:

• In high-stress moments, micro leaders emerged: people who spoke up, took calm action, or helped guide others.
• Others followed, even if they didn’t know them, emotional contagion and social proof again in action.

3. Westgate Mall Attack (Kenya, 2013)

What happened:

• Armed terrorists attacked a Nairobi shopping mall, resulting in a siege lasting several days.
• Amid the chaos, civilians helped strangers escape, including a British soldier in civilian clothes who reportedly led groups of people to safety.

Psychological dynamics:

• The soldier’s calm presence and clear instructions made others feel safe and confident enough to act, a direct effect of perceived authority and composed behaviour.
• Many survivors credit people who took charge (even briefly) for saving lives.

What All These Have in Common

• In chaotic or dangerous situations, most people look for cues on how to behave.
• Those who project clarity, courage, or calmness, can shift the behaviour of an entire group.
• This can determine whether people freeze, flee, panic, or fight back – and Live to tell the tale.

Incident Response Training

Note: You will never know who or how many people will respond positively during a crisis situation until that very moment of a crisis, we do know, many will freeze and hesitate, and we also know a small few will rise to the occasion instinctively.

That is why EVERYBODY at an organisation must be involved in the incident response training systems.

Let’s dive into how these principles are actively used (or sometimes neglected) in emergency response training and then contrast that with examples where a lack of leadership caused mass panic or unnecessary deaths.

How Psychology is Used in Incident Response Training

1. Designating Leaders Before an Emergency

• Why: People naturally follow confident figures, so first responders, flight attendants, teachers, and others are trained to take immediate, visible control.
• Example: On airplanes, flight attendants are taught to use firm, clear commands during emergencies, not just to provide info, but to project confidence and reduce panic contagion.
• However, as discussed above, those designated leaders can Freeze and Hesitate, but one person can switch that response and fire the leaders into action.

2. Modelling Calm Behaviour

• Training goal. Show that calmness is contagious.
• In high-stress simulations (e.g., active assailant drills), leaders are taught to lower their voice, move deliberately, and make strong eye contact, these cues tell the brain you’re safe following me.

3. Scripts and Repetition

• Emergency personnel often rehearse exact words to say (e.g. Follow me now; You’re safe, keep moving etc). This is partly to reduce their own stress response, but also to provide a clear focal point for those in panic.
• Why it works: Uncertainty is more frightening than danger. A clear voice cuts through fear. Rehearsing clear directions creates habitual action and comes to mind immediately, and during stressful situations that type of response is live saving.

4. Crowd Movement Design

• Architects and emergency planners study crowd behaviour under stress to design buildings that naturally funnel people in safe directions.
• Exit signs, barriers, and lighting are used to subconsciously guide people, even in darkness or chaos, reducing the chance of stampedes or bottlenecks.
• When you plan incident response plans that involve evacuation drills, keep in mind the flow of large groups, and try to use not just standard exits but find alternative egress such as ground floor windows.
• Multiple exits is the goal to elevate stampedes and bottlenecks.

When Lack of Leadership by anyone Leads to Disaster

Example 1: The Hillsborough Disaster (1989, UK)

• What happened: A human crush occurred at a football match, killing 97 fans.
• Problem: Poor crowd control, no clear communication, and no one taking command of the growing panic.
• Psychology in action: Without leadership, people relied on the behaviour of others, which meant crowding into already full areas, worsening the crush.

Example 2: The Station Nightclub Fire (Rhode Island, USA, 2003)

• What happened: Pyrotechnics caused a fast-moving fire during a concert; 100 people died.
• Issue: Most people rushed to the main entrance, even though multiple exits existed.
• Why? In chaos, people follow others, especially if no one is clearly directing them.
• Had someone calmly guided others to the side exits, many more lives could have been saved.

Example 3: Astroworld Festival (2021, Houston, USA)

• What happened: A deadly crowd crush during a performance left 10 people dead.
• Lack of leadership: Security and event staff failed to respond quickly or communicate effectively.
• Without any visible point of authority, the crowd’s emotional state spiralled from excitement to fear to physical danger.

Summary

Why This Matters – The Power of Leadership in a Crisis

When something goes wrong, like a terrorist attack, fire, an accident, or any sudden emergency, people look for direction.

In those critical moments, leadership even from just one person can change everything.

That one person could be anyone not just designated leaders and it saves lives.

With leadership from anybody:

• People stay calm.
• They look for exits and make smart choices.
• Lives are saved because people act with purpose.
• A leader’s voice or presence helps steady emotions and reduce panic.

Without leadership from anybody:

• Panic spreads quickly.
• People follow the crowd blindly, even if it leads to danger.
• Lives are lost because chaos takes over.
• Uncertainty grows, and fear feeds on itself.

When someone steps up to lead, even briefly, it can mean the difference between order and chaos, survival and tragedy. Leadership doesn’t need a title. It just needs courage, clarity, and calm.

That leadership can be created from effective training. Now you understand what Organised Chaos is, use it to improve organisational response.

Reference sources:

I’ve added some references of were some of the above information derived from.  You will notice, its not new information, understanding these topics shapes quality training and develops the Organised Chaos Effect.

Asch, S. E. (1951). Effects of group pressure upon the modification and distortion of judgments. Groups, Leadership, and Men, 222–236. Retrieved from https://psychclassics.yorku.ca/Asch/conformity.htm

Hatfield, E., Cacioppo, J. T., & Rapson, R. L. (1993). Emotional contagion. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 2(3), 96–100. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8721.ep10770953

Milgram, S. (1963). Behavioural study of obedience. Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 67(4), 371–378. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0040525

Turner, R. H., & Killian, L. M. (1987). Collective Behaviour (3rd ed.). Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.

Zimbardo, P. G. (1969). The human choice: Individuation, reason, and order versus deindividuation, impulse, and chaos. In W. J. Arnold & D. Levine (Eds.), Nebraska Symposium on Motivation (Vol. 17, pp. 237–307). Lincoln: University of Nebraska Press.

9/11 Commission. (2004). The 9/11 Commission Report: Final report of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States. Retrieved from https://www.9-11commission.gov/report/911Report.pdf

BBC News. (2015, November 14). Paris attacks: What happened at the Bataclan? Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34818994

Gettleman, J., & Kulish, N. (2013, September 22). Terrorists storm mall in Nairobi, Kenya. The New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/23/world/africa/nairobi-kenya-mall-shooting.html

Hillsborough Independent Panel. (2012). The Report of the Hillsborough Independent Panel. Retrieved from https://hillsborough.independent.gov.uk/

National Institute of Standards and Technology. (2005). Final Report on the Collapse of the World Trade Center Towers. NIST NCSTAR 1. Retrieved from https://www.nist.gov/publications/station-nightclub-fire-final-report-technical-investigation

Shoichet, C. E., & Holcombe, M. (2021, November 6). What we know about the Astroworld tragedy. CNN. Retrieved from https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/06/us/astroworld-festival-what-we-know/index.html

Gwynne, S., Galea, E. R., Lawrence, P. J., & Filippidis, L. (2003). Modelling occupant interaction with fire conditions using the buildingEXODUS evacuation model. Fire Safety Journal, 38(5), 327–357. https://tsapps.nist.gov/publication/get_pdf.cfm?pub_id=861077

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). (n.d.). Emergency Management Institute Independent Study Courses. Retrieved from https://training.fema.gov